OMG – What a Coincidence!

Uri Geller, let’s be generous, the illusionist, once did a trick on a chat show where he invited a TV audience to go and search for that watch that hadn’t worked for ages. He exalted the compliant brethren to fetch and hold it in their hands to which he would send positive energy through the screen to restart the timepiece. Oh my word, oh my goodness, the switchboards were jammed with excited followers whose watch had come back to life after years of inaction in that drawer. It is a very improbable resurrection but Uri knows full well that firstly many people don’t throw away objects that have high sentimental attachment and secondly agitation or the warmth from a committed clenched hand can release a heart’s murmur of electricity from a dormant battery. To give him his due though, he takes the risk of reliance on others and exhibits considerable faith but the real credit for the trick should go to statistics in this case the size of the population that is taking part.

Infinite monkeys and typewriters mean anything can happen. The real beauty of probability is that if you give anything enough chance of happening, it’ll happen. That’s why we’re here. In this link to a lecture in 2010, ‘Statistically, you shouldn’t be here’ Bill Bryson talks about the 4 billion years of reproductive good fortune that had to happen for you just to exist.

You’re a miracle  – or are you!

I’ve been boring my classes for years that you only need 30 or so people in a room to ensure two people have the same birthday, although ensure is not factually correct. With 30 people you have 435 ways of comparing two people’s birthday so I prefer to say 40 with 780 ways and I don’t end up with egg on my face when we try it. Yes there are 365 different possible birthdays but when you compensate that low chance of two being the same by having 780 goes, probability wins through. The chances of winning the lottery are 1 in 14 million but if you buy 14 million or more tickets!!?

But having the same birthday is boring, what other things could 40 odd random people have in common with each other that are simply unknown to us. Many years ago in Devon, a new secondary pupil in my class got talking to the boy sitting next to him. They discovered that they had unknowingly previously been in the same infants class in a small village in Scotland. (They were twins- no, I jest!) What’s the chance of something like that happening? – Well as it turns out, certain, if you think about it.

An amazing film which deals with this phenomenon. is Magnolia . At the start, we are told three true stories of unbelievable coincidences. (Everybody, in fact, has their own tales they can and do tell of such improbable circumstances.) The film unravels the narrative of a dozen or so poor souls whose suffering and interacting fortunes improve after a cataclysmic downpour of frogs. I’ve watched this film for years and it was only when I was reading the Imdb review did I become aware of the sublimal inclusion of the number 82, everywhere in the film by the director Paul Thomas Anderson. The number 82 refers to Exodus 8:2 which reads

“If you refuse to let them go, I will plague your whole country with frogs.”

But the irony personally for me continues. I was lying awake in bed that night thinking about this 82. This number rings a bell, where have I seen it before. I went downstairs and found the answer. I had been walking around for the last two years or so in a pair of single strap sandals with a basketball style 82 blazoned across them. What’s more is the colour of the strap, a lightish pink was ‘remarkably’ the same colour as the firefighter’s plane, but then I’m toying with you to emphasise my point. If 82 hadn’t have been on the sandal, it would have been somewhere else, an address on an envelope, a speeding fine or something else my radar was now programmed to look for.

Coincidences are the occasions that we notice. A gambler will only tell you of the times he wins. n (n – 1)/2 gives 780 just when n is 40, what do you think it gives for a million, billion, even a  squillion? The human face has a limited number of features that vary, is it then so surprising or hard to accept that we will all have dopplegangers. Is it possible that life could be occurring elsewhere? The astronomically huge numbers say definitely so. Just think of it, thousands of planets with other monkeys, each one created by god, of course. That does mean that they all need and have saviours, presumably cousins of Jesus, as the original was an only child!

Thousands of years ago or indeed still today to people who want to believe it, a coincidence such as my sandal could only be explained as being a sign from god. The lord has spoken and sent us this sign. Well I’m afraid that’s rubbish. The monkeys now know too much to be frightened off by the belief that God is watching over us, responsible for everything and sending us the odd reminder of his omnipotence.

OMG – What a Coincidence!

Significant Figures?

Whenever you see a big number ending in zeros, it’s very probable that the number has been rounded. It could be on the basis that the receiver either doesn’t need to know the exact value, (it’s not important) or the informant doesn’t know what the actual number is.
In the following example, a football attendance, let’s say, has been given to varying levels of accuracy, said to be rounding to a specified number of significant figures.
76 537 = 80 000 (to 1 s.f.)
= 77 000 (to 2 s.f.)
= 76 500 (to 3 s.f.)

The number of British troop deaths, at the time of writing, has reached 446. No zeros there and understandably so. We care what the actual number is and the relative low size makes it still possible to individualise each member of the set.
In contrast, I have heard many times, even opponents of the war in Iraq, refer to the 100, 000 Iraqi civilian deaths there have been as a consequence of the illegal war. The magnitude of this number seems to be undisputed but do you see the use of the zeros. Is it because we don’t know the actual truth or simply we don’t care? I honestly don’t know but there’s good news for if you visit the Iraq Body Count website one can access a far more accurate figure.
The concept of big numbers is a difficult one for young children to grasp. If you counted a million pounds, one pound every second, it would take over 12 days and nights to do it. It’s a really humongous number. Ask the Great Train Robbers of 1963 who hadn’t planned into their schedule the time involved to count their booty! The relative size of a million, billion and trillion are beautifully demonstrated by this film called, ‘What does a trillion dollars look like?’
Think about it. It would need 44 000 articulated trucks to take 1 000 000 000 000 real dollars to the bank. The truth is that it’s not and never will be real. I doubt if such an amount has ever been printed in the history of the world. Capitalism knows no limit and my fear is that many people don’t realise the immensity of such illusory ‘monopoly’ numbers, like the UK National Debt
Journalists know that 1 000 000 people killed is a statistic whereas one person’s plight is a story.
So History teachers, how about this way of getting over how many Jews were killed in the holocaust. 6 000 000 is the statistic that everyone knows, lots of zeros there, mind, remember our two rules?
I took a Year 7 class into our Drama hall and by lying head to toe, we estimated that we could fill the hall, sardine-like by 25 x 20 x 12 (= 6 000) bodies. The bowl volume of Wembley stadium is 1.1 million cubic metres which is conveniently about 1 000 times the size of our hall, …trust me I’m a Maths teacher!
Now what this means is that if you filled Wembley stadium, sardine-wise, with bodies to the top, that’s how many Jews were killed in the extermination camps. The slightly smaller Millenium stadium in Cardiff should be big enough to carry the slightly less important
2 – 3 000 000 Soviet POWs
1.8 – 2 000 000 Ethnic Poles
220 000 – 1 500 000 Romani (interesting range!)
200 000 – 250 000 Disabled
90 000 Freemasons, Homosexuals, Jehovah’s Witnesses

Anyway, do you see that steward in the florescent jacket in the foreground for scale? (Click on picture to enlarge)
Geddit! – Is that significant enough for you?

“What’s that Danny! – there’s a puppy in the playground?
Have you been listening to a damn thing I’ve been saying, boy?
Ok, chairs under, off you go.”

Significant Figures?

January 1, 2014

I Found a Dead Body Today

I found my elderly neighbour dead in his living-room this morning. When I say I found him, that’s not entirely true because it was Warren who had ten minutes previously discovered Robin and had rung our doorbell to use the phone. Warren seemed in shock so I very sensitively volunteered to take over and deal with the situation. The emergency services wanted me to go into Robin’s flat, phone them from there to confirm some details. So this is exactly how I found myself for the first time in my 56 years on this earth face to face with a human corpse. For those who have been to many a wake or worked with the elderly, fatally injured in accidents or terminally ill in hospital are justifiably entitled to think, you’ve led a sheltered life, welcome to my world!
Robin had probably died the night before whilst recovering from a long stressful car journey returning from spending Christmas with his son. It looked like he was getting ready for bed when he suffered a fatal heart attack. He was partially undressed, his face had turned purplish blue, his eyes were wide open and the indignity of his position for such a proud bon-viveur gentleman was what struck me most. Except for those first dutiful inspections of Robin’s corpse, I found it hard to look in his direction while I waited for the ambulance service to arrive. My emotions were of no great sadness, upset or physical queasiness (Robin had survived cancer surgery and endured severe respiratory and heart problems) just enormous respect and reverence to be present at an extinguished life. I have to admit that in sensitively volunteering to witnessing Robin’s demise, I had probably seized an opportunity to finally confront such an ordeal.
The paramedics took over and they with the police went through all the procedural paperwork and protocol with their usual considerable professional efficiency. Warren was questioned for the details needed. I made tea and my thoughts, rather less selflessly, turned increasingly to the afternoon’s football programme, as my use and need to the proceedings diminished.
You see when I was in my early twenties, I witnessed my own father’s gradual and painful demise over a difficult month but missed the merciful final passing. I only have had the memory of the frenzied panic as he grasped the oxygen mask to steal a breath that his lungs couldn’t manage to supply and that orange liquid that I felt obliged to encourage him to take that the medical staff briefed us was the only sustenance his body would not fully reject. Even the psoriasis that had blighted him all his life had departed his skull and joints, no longer being able to be hosted by his skeletal frame.
I expect no more of others who will later find me. Cart me off and waste no further time in getting on with the rest of your remaining days. I have after all, like Robin, had a great life for which I’m grateful.
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I Found a Dead Body Today

December 30, 2013

The Road to what We’ve Lost

Some years ago, I found myself in rural India, visiting newly-formed schools, 200km north-east inland from Calcutta. A long train journey followed by a invariably uncomfortable jeep drive took me past increasingly smaller settlements.The last dry, dusty rutted road we travelled along would have been impassable by any driver other than our well-initiated host. Over the next week or so, I met beautiful wonderful and essentially grateful people who had experienced very little or no contact with the outside world and who were absolutely delighted to greet us. Adjectives ending in -ful are fitting words to use as your lasting impression is that these humble people live such full rich lives and still uphold values that we have sadly lost.

Usually in these circumstances, whilst being overwhelmed by the hospitality, warmth of welcome and the garlands, it is easy to just take pictures and not reflect enough on the incredible significance to one’s thinking about your own life. If there was very little sign of seepage of laudable western civilisation’s influences, there was refreshingly less evidence that the worst traits had reached this hinterland. From my Jeep’s window, I observed the commonplace use of shadoofs in the fields for irrigation. I remember learning at school how the ancient Egyptians had used these primitive levers to water their crops. The question I posed myself was if I was in an extensively farming area where working practices have not changed appreciably in thousands of years, then I shouldn’t be surprised if ideas, attitudes,beliefs and lifestyles haven’t evolved accordingly. Civilisation used to be laid down in incredibly thin veils, I think of this when I come across such provisions as statutory wheelchair access and surrogate teaching assistants for pupils with learning difficulties. You won’t be surprised to learn that I didn’t see any evidence of these luxurious amendments. It takes time for these changes to take place, millennium, centuries or as little as decades if you’re an awakening giant like China or if you’ve had occupying colonialists leave to free up the process.
On the night of our arrival, one of my fellow travellers pointed to a faraway hut from our hostel balcony and suggested we might walk there to have a beer.Taking into account that our evening meal was cooked on a wooden fire and the only drink available was water because only the essentials to life are in use, I doubted the profit would accrue from such a walk.
“There’s nothing of luxury value in that hut, Chris. Do you know why? – because there’s nothing coming up that bleedin’ road. No non-essential goods, no people, no ideas, no influences. If there were, that hut would changed into a hovel over time which would have progressed into a shack, which in turn would have evolved into a house. We would be looking at a Manhattan skyline but we’re not!”
To build a road means to connect people to the outside and time does the rest. Be careful though to have a checkpoint so as to not let in those veils that cause you to lose what is important to preserve.

The Road to what We’ve Lost

December 27, 2013