Come to the Edge

“Come to the edge,” he said.
“We can’t, we’re afraid!” they responded.
“Come to the edge,” he said.
“We can’t, We will fall!” they responded.
“Come to the edge,” he said.
And so they came.
And he pushed them.
And they flew.”

Guillame Apollinaire

Many people suffer from’loss aversion’, they feel losses more than they feel gains leading them to pass up very favourable odds to avoid a loss.  Psychologically people feel a loss around twice as heavily as they feel a gain.

I don’t bet (often!) but once I put £100 on a greyhound called ‘Shelbourne Aston’ and followed its fortunes through 4/5 qualifying rounds for a place in the Paddy Power Irish Derby Final. Each race it just managed to get the last qualifying spot as many of the  favoured dogs went out. I noticed that in a one-lap race if two greyhounds brushed each other, perhaps when coming out of the traps, it invariably put paid to their chances. Shelbourne had a habit of leaving it very late. My now believing wife joined me in our local pub to watch the final. I told her in the car park, our dog comes from behind. He’s in trap 3 in the white, you can easily spot him he’s the one hopelessly last by the first corner!

We hadn’t a clue if he had won or not until they interviewed the winning owner who mentioned his name. £3 000 quid winnings for a ridiculous punt that makes no sense.

So, if your brother-in-law tells you on a narrow-boat holiday that he has inside knowledge on this champion greyhound. Get off that excuse for a form of transport, find the nearest village betting establishment and don’t be frightened to fly with something in Ireland that arrives later than Ryan Air.

Come to the Edge

July 7, 2015